How it works
The Shot Report estimates the value of every field-goal attempt using publicly available shot data. Here is what the numbers mean and what they do not capture.
Data sources
The Shot Report does not use proprietary tracking data. Everything below is public or derived in-house. We are not affiliated with the WNBA, NBA, or ESPN.
ESPN's APIs are unofficial — endpoints can change without notice. If ingest fails or a profile stats request errors, some numbers may be stale or unavailable until we update the pipeline.
Expected points (xPts)
Every shot attempt has an expected point value based on where it was taken and what type of shot it was. A restricted-area layup is worth more in expectation than a contested long two.
A corner three has an expected value of 1.14 points (3 × 38%). A long two has an expected value of 0.78 points (2 × 39%). The difference adds up across a full game.
Shot zone baselines
Expected FG% comes from league-average shooting percentages by shot zone. This is the Phase 1 model — simple, transparent, and easy to audit. Baselines will be updated as real league data becomes available.
Shot-making over expected
Shot-making measures whether a team or player made more or fewer points than their shot diet suggested.
A positive number means the team shot above average from their locations. A negative number means they shot below average. Neither is automatically good or bad process — hot shooting regresses, and creating great shots that do not fall is still good process.
Shot-quality edge
The shot-quality edge compares the two teams' total expected field-goal points.
A positive edge means this team generated more valuable shot attempts than their opponent.
Clutch leverage (Final 5)
Clutch shots are attempts in the final 5:00 of the 4th quarter or overtime when the score was within 5 points. Win swingmeasures how much a shot moved the shooting team's estimated win probability — separate from shot quality (xPts).
Defaults in v1:
A high-xPts miss can still carry a large negative win swing in a tie game. Both numbers are shown side by side — they answer different questions.
Team rankings columns
The team rankings table compares season-long shot quality on tracked field-goal attempts. Rate columns (xP/F) measure shot diet; game totals (xP/g) combine rate and volume.
Def xP/F vs Def xP/g vs Opp-adj:Def xP/F is the per-shot rate you allow. Def xP/g is rate × volume — a team can rank well on rate but poorly on total if opponents shoot often. Opp-adj compares each opponent's xP/F vs you to their season norm, so a strong raw Def xP/F that only faces weak shooters may rank lower on Opp-adj. Opp trn% / Trn xP/F split transition volume from transition shot quality allowed — inferred from play-by-play tags, not tracking data.
Based on tracked field goal attempts only — not free throws, turnovers, or possessions without a shot attempt.
Possession context (inferred)
Some team and game views tag each field-goal attempt with an inferred possession context from ESPN play-by-play order — not tracking data.
Tags are approximate — ESPN does not publish official possession ids. They are useful for comparing transition vs half-court xP/F allowed, not for possession-count stats.
What this model does not include
This product uses publicly available shot location data only. It does not include:
Shot quality should be understood as a public-data approximation, not a complete picture of offensive efficiency.
Player labels
Each player receives a label based on shot diet and shot-making in that game: