This game · 145 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Minnesota Lynx won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 12 points on 4-for-5 (80%), headlined by 4-for-5 from above the break — 6.3 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Toronto Tempo created 5.4 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Minnesota Lynx outperformed expected value by 15.4 points on finishing.
- Q3 swung the look battle — Toronto Tempo built a +9.2 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Toronto Tempo got the cleaner diet — 41% rim or corner looks vs 29% for Minnesota Lynx.
carried the offense at the rim — 4/4 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 32% of Toronto's attempts came from the rim vs 26% of Minnesota's, with Toronto leaning on the higher-value zone (32% vs 26%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 32% of Toronto's attempts came from the rim vs 26% of Minnesota's, with Toronto leaning on the higher-value zone (32% vs 26%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Minnesota Lynx won by 6.9 pts — SQ edge said TOR.
Toronto Tempo got the better looks, but Minnesota Lynx won the full process battle by 6.9 pts.
Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightMiles's strongest zone was Above — 67% from Above (4/6) vs. a 34% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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