This game · 132 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Las Vegas Aces won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 16 points on 6-for-10 (60%), headlined by 4-for-5 from above the break — 6.6 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher, with Jackie Young close behind (+6.4 on 29 points).
- New York Liberty created 4.1 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Las Vegas Aces outperformed expected value by 15.8 points on finishing.
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — New York Liberty created a +3.4 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
New York Liberty got the cleaner diet — 37% rim or corner looks vs 19% for Las Vegas Aces.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 4/7 from short midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 29% of New York's attempts came from the rim vs 11% of Las Vegas's, with New York leaning on the higher-value zone (29% vs 11%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 29% of New York's attempts came from the rim vs 11% of Las Vegas's, with New York leaning on the higher-value zone (29% vs 11%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
New York Liberty won by 2.2 pts
Las Vegas Aces won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightWilson created in difficult areas and delivered — 75% from S.Mid (3/4) well above the 40% baseline for that zone.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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