This game · 130 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Portland Fire won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 26 points on 9-for-16 (56%), headlined by 2-for-2 from short midrange — 7.1 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher, with Player 4068346 close behind (+6.1 on 13 points).
- Portland Fire created 5.5 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- New York Liberty outperformed expected value by 16.7 points on finishing.
- Q2 swung the look battle — Portland Fire built a +4.9 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
New York Liberty lived in the midrange (24%) while Portland Fire was at 13% — a cleaner profile for Portland Fire.
carried the offense at the rim — 5/5 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 32% of New York's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 41% of Portland's; Portland tilted here more (41% vs 32%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 32% of New York's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 41% of Portland's; Portland tilted here more (41% vs 32%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Portland Fire won by 8.0 pts
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightCarleton created in difficult areas and delivered — 100% from S.Mid (2/2) well above the 40% baseline for that zone.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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