TSRBeta
Wednesday, September 23, 2026 · Final

This game · 137 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots

103—91
Dallas Wings
DAL
Wings
SEA
Storm
Seattle Storm

Dallas Wings won on finishing, not shot quality.

Jessica Shepard

led the way with 20 points on 9-for-12 (75%), headlined by 6-for-6 in the interior — 7.1 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.

  1. Seattle Storm created 0.2 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Dallas Wings outperformed expected value by 20.0 points on finishing.
  3. Q3 swung the look battle — Seattle Storm built a +4.5 expected-point edge in that period.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
-0.2↓ Below avg
+0.2↓ Below avg
Shot making
+20.0↑ Above avg
+8.8
Expected pts per shot
0.97
0.99

Shot diet

Dallas Wings lived in the midrange (38%) while Seattle Storm was at 24% — a cleaner profile for Seattle Storm.

Dominique Malonga

carried the offense at the rim — 7/7 in the restricted area.

RimKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 20% of Dallas's attempts came from the rim vs 28% of Seattle's, with Seattle leaning on the higher-value zone (28% vs 20%).

DAL
20%11/14 · 79% FG
SEA
28%16/19 · 84% FG
2/2 7/7
Paint
DAL
16%7/11 · 64% FG
SEA
15%3/10 · 30% FG
3/3 3/6
Corner 3
DAL
4%2/3 · 67% FG
SEA
6%2/4 · 50% FG
1/1 0/1
Short mid
DAL
20%7/14 · 50% FG
SEA
13%3/9 · 33% FG
3/5 2/3
Long mid
DAL
17%5/12 · 42% FG
SEA
10%4/7 · 57% FG
2/4 4/7
Above break
DAL
22%7/15 · 47% FG
SEA
28%6/19 · 32% FG
2/2 3/6

Possession context

DALSEA
Transition share20%28%
Second-chance share13%12%
After-steal share10%6%
Half-court expected pts/att0.960.98
Transition expected pts/att0.990.97

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Dallas Wings won by 13.0 pts — SQ edge said SEA.

Seattle Storm got the better looks, but Dallas Wings won the full process battle by 13.0 pts.

Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.

DALSEAEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots67.067.2SEA
Finishing vs expected+20.0+8.8DAL

ESPN box score

Free throw pts1615DAL
Turnovers1313Even
Offensive rebounds89SEA

Process value (pts)

Process total98.485.4DAL
↳ Looks + finishing87.076.0+11.0
↳ Free throws16.015.0+1.0
↳ Turnover cost-13.0-15.0+2.0
↳ Second chance8.49.4-1.0

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
11/18
FG%
61%
Pts
29
Vs expected
+4.8
C&S
1/4
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightMalonga's strongest zone was Rim — 100% from Rim (7/7) vs. a 58% expectation.

Restricted area
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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