This game · 148 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Minnesota Lynx won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 22 points on 7-for-10 (70%), headlined by 4-for-6 from above the break — 8.7 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Dallas Wings created 3.3 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Minnesota Lynx outperformed expected value by 12.2 points on makes and misses.
- Q3 swung the look battle — Dallas Wings built a +4.9 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Minnesota Lynx got the cleaner diet — 42% rim or corner looks vs 23% for Dallas Wings.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 7/11 from long midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 18% of Dallas's attempts came from the rim vs 41% of Minnesota's, with Minnesota leaning on the higher-value zone (41% vs 18%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 18% of Dallas's attempts came from the rim vs 41% of Minnesota's, with Minnesota leaning on the higher-value zone (41% vs 18%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Minnesota Lynx won by 30.9 pts — SQ edge said DAL.
Dallas Wings got the better looks, but Minnesota Lynx won the full process battle by 30.9 pts.
Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightWilliams created in difficult areas and delivered — 64% from L.Mid (7/11) well above the 41% baseline for that zone.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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