TSRBeta
Monday, June 22, 2026 · Final

This game · 140 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots

63—92
Chicago Sky
CHI
Sky
CONN
Sun
Connecticut Sun

Connecticut Sun won on finishing, not shot quality.

Leila Lacan

led the way with 12 points on 5-for-6 (83%), headlined by 4-for-4 in the interior — 4.2 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.

  1. Chicago Sky created 4.9 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Connecticut Sun outperformed expected value by 3.0 points on makes and misses.
  3. Leila Lacan carried the finishing gap — +4.2 vs expected on 12 points.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
+4.9↓ Below avg
-4.9↓ Below avg
Shot making
-35.9↑ Season best
+3.0↓ Below avg
Expected pts per shot
1.01
1.03

Shot diet

Connecticut Sun got the cleaner diet — 51% rim or corner looks vs 37% for Chicago Sky.

Olivia Nelson-Ododa

carried the offense at the rim — 4/5 in the restricted area.

RimKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 29% of Chicago's attempts came from the rim vs 46% of Connecticut's, with Connecticut leaning on the higher-value zone (46% vs 29%).

CHI
29%8/21 · 38% FG
CONN
46%19/31 · 61% FG
5/10 2/2
Paint
CHI
12%2/9 · 22% FG
CONN
18%6/12 · 50% FG
1/2 2/2
Corner 3
CHI
8%0/6 · 0% FG
CONN
4%1/3 · 33% FG
0/2 0/1
Short mid
CHI
12%3/9 · 33% FG
CONN
9%3/6 · 50% FG
1/3 1/2
Long mid
CHI
5%0/4 · 0% FG
CONN
7%2/5 · 40% FG
0/1 0/1
Above break
CHI
33%4/24 · 17% FG
CONN
15%3/10 · 30% FG
1/2 1/2

Possession context

CONN ran more early offense in this game.

Connecticut Sun got 28% of FGA in transition (1.05 expected pts/att) vs 12% for Chicago Sky (0.92 expected pts/att).

CHICONN
Transition share12%28%
Second-chance share19%13%
After-steal share7%4%
Half-court expected pts/att0.981.01
Transition expected pts/att0.921.05

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Connecticut Sun won by 28.0 pts — SQ edge said CHI.

Chicago Sky got the better looks, but Connecticut Sun won the full process battle by 28.0 pts.

Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.

CHICONNEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots73.969.0CHI
Finishing vs expected-35.9+3.0CONN

ESPN box score

Free throw pts2520CHI
Turnovers1417CHI
Offensive rebounds1110CHI

Process value (pts)

Process total59.587.5CONN
↳ Looks + finishing38.072.0-34.0
↳ Free throws25.020.0+5.0
↳ Turnover cost-15.0-15.0+0.0
↳ Second chance11.510.5+1.0

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
4/11
FG%
36%
Pts
13
Vs expected
-2.4
C&S
1/3
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightLeger-Walker's strongest zone was Cor 3 — 100% from Cor 3 (1/1) vs. a 44% expectation.

Restricted area
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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