This game · 140 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Las Vegas Aces won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 29 points on 10-for-15 (67%), headlined by 8-for-12 from above the break — 13.4 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Portland Fire created 0.8 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Las Vegas Aces outperformed expected value by 16.2 points on finishing.
- Q3 swung the look battle — Las Vegas Aces built a +5.1 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Portland Fire got the cleaner diet — 43% rim or corner looks vs 24% for Las Vegas Aces.
carried the offense at the rim — 3/4 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 17% of Las Vegas's attempts came from the rim vs 31% of Portland's, with Portland leaning on the higher-value zone (31% vs 17%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 17% of Las Vegas's attempts came from the rim vs 31% of Portland's, with Portland leaning on the higher-value zone (31% vs 17%).
Possession context
LV earned cleaner half-court looks.
Las Vegas Aces at 0.90 half-court expected pts/att vs Portland Fire at 1.05 — set-defense quality separated more than transition volume.
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Las Vegas Aces won by 33.8 pts — SQ edge said POR.
Portland Fire got the better looks, but Las Vegas Aces won the full process battle by 33.8 pts.
Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightLeite created in difficult areas and delivered — 100% from Rim (2/2) well above the 57% baseline for that zone.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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