TSRBeta
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · Final

This game · 141 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots

106—69
New York Liberty
NY
Liberty
TOR
Tempo
Toronto Tempo

New York Liberty won on finishing, not shot quality.

Breanna Stewart

led the way with 27 points on 10-for-14 (71%), headlined by 3-for-3 from long midrange — 7.0 more than expected overall.

  1. Toronto Tempo created 1.0 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. New York Liberty outperformed expected value by 21.3 points on makes and misses.
  3. The game flipped in the fourth quarter — New York Liberty created a +5.4 expected-point edge in Q4.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
-1.0↓ Below avg
+1.0↓ Below avg
Shot making
+21.3↑ Above avg
-17.6↑ Above avg
Expected pts per shot
1.05
1.02

Shot diet

Toronto Tempo attacked the rim more — 36% of attempts in the restricted area vs 25% for New York Liberty.

Laura Juskaite

carried the offense at the rim — 6/8 in the restricted area.

RimKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 25% of New York's attempts came from the rim vs 36% of Toronto's, with Toronto leaning on the higher-value zone (36% vs 25%).

NY
25%12/17 · 71% FG
TOR
36%11/26 · 42% FG
3/3 6/8
Paint
NY
7%3/5 · 60% FG
TOR
14%6/10 · 60% FG
2/2 3/3
Corner 3
NY
20%6/14 · 43% FG
TOR
4%1/3 · 33% FG
3/5 0/1
Short mid
NY
9%5/6 · 83% FG
TOR
7%3/5 · 60% FG
2/2 1/2
Long mid
NY
6%3/4 · 75% FG
TOR
13%5/9 · 56% FG
3/3 4/6
Above break
NY
33%10/23 · 43% FG
TOR
26%1/19 · 5% FG
2/4 1/6

Possession context

NY ran more early offense in this game.

New York Liberty got 32% of FGA in transition (1.03 expected pts/att) vs 14% for Toronto Tempo (1.10 expected pts/att).

NYTOR
Transition share32%14%
Second-chance share16%17%
After-steal share6%6%
Half-court expected pts/att1.051.01
Transition expected pts/att1.031.10

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

New York Liberty won by 27.9 pts — SQ edge said TOR.

Toronto Tempo got the better looks, but New York Liberty won the full process battle by 27.9 pts.

Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.

NYTOREdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots72.773.6TOR
Finishing vs expected+21.3-17.6NY

ESPN box score

Free throw pts1213TOR
Turnovers1716TOR
Offensive rebounds811TOR

Process value (pts)

Process total95.467.5NY
↳ Looks + finishing94.056.0+38.0
↳ Free throws12.013.0-1.0
↳ Turnover cost-19.0-13.0-6.0
↳ Second chance8.411.5-3.1

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
9/16
FG%
56%
Pts
19
Vs expected
+4.5
C&S
0/1
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightRice created in difficult areas and delivered — 67% from L.Mid (4/6) well above the 37% baseline for that zone.

Long midrange
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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