This game · 119 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots
Phoenix Mercury won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 22 points on 5-for-8 (63%), headlined by 2-for-3 from above the break — 5.1 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher, with Alyssa Thomas close behind (+4.2 on 18 points).
- Portland Fire created 7.8 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Phoenix Mercury outperformed expected value by 12.2 points on finishing.
- Q1 swung the look battle — Portland Fire built a +5.0 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Portland Fire (31% good looks) and Phoenix Mercury (26% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
carried the offense at the rim — 3/4 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 33% of Phoenix's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 40% of Portland's; Portland tilted here more (40% vs 33%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 33% of Phoenix's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 40% of Portland's; Portland tilted here more (40% vs 33%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Portland Fire won by 13.0 pts
Portland Fire won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightEngstler's strongest zone was Above — 57% from Above (4/7) vs. a 35% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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