TSRBeta
Monday, August 10, 2026 · Final

This game · 137 FGA|Season model · 293 games · 39,996 shots

95—107
Toronto Tempo
TOR
Tempo
ATL
Dream
Atlanta Dream

Atlanta Dream won by getting the better shots.

Rhyne Howard

led the way with 22 points on 7-for-15 (47%), headlined by 4-for-9 from above the break — 5.3 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.

  1. Atlanta Dream created 10.8 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Toronto Tempo outperformed expected value by 14.9 points on finishing.
  3. The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Atlanta Dream created a +8.5 expected-point edge in Q4.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
-10.8↑ Above avg
+10.8
Shot making
+14.9↑ Above avg
+10.1
Expected pts per shot
0.97
1.08

Shot diet

Atlanta Dream got the cleaner diet — 50% rim or corner looks vs 30% for Toronto Tempo.

Brionna Jones

carried the offense at the rim — 5/5 in the restricted area.

RimKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 25% of Toronto's attempts came from the rim vs 41% of Atlanta's, with Atlanta leaning on the higher-value zone (41% vs 25%).

TOR
25%13/17 · 76% FG
ATL
41%19/29 · 66% FG
4/4 4/4
Paint
TOR
21%9/14 · 64% FG
ATL
10%3/7 · 43% FG
2/2 1/2
Corner 3
TOR
4%0/3 · 0% FG
ATL
9%3/6 · 50% FG
0/1 2/2
Short mid
TOR
9%2/6 · 33% FG
ATL
1%0/1 · 0% FG
1/2 0/1
Long mid
TOR
6%1/4 · 25% FG
ATL
1%0/1 · 0% FG
1/2 0/1
Above break
TOR
34%10/23 · 43% FG
ATL
37%11/26 · 42% FG
7/12 1/2

Possession context

TOR ran more early offense in this game.

Toronto Tempo got 28% of FGA in transition (0.94 expected pts/att) vs 16% for Atlanta Dream (1.06 expected pts/att).

TORATL
Transition share28%16%
Second-chance share10%16%
After-steal share6%6%
Half-court expected pts/att0.951.10
Transition expected pts/att0.941.06

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Atlanta Dream won by 13.3 pts

Atlanta Dream won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.

Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.

TORATLEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots65.175.9ATL
Finishing vs expected+14.9+10.1TOR

ESPN box score

Free throw pts1521ATL
Turnovers1314TOR
Offensive rebounds512ATL

Process value (pts)

Process total89.2102.6ATL
↳ Looks + finishing80.086.0-6.0
↳ Free throws15.021.0-6.0
↳ Turnover cost-11.0-17.0+6.0
↳ Second chance5.212.6-7.3

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
7/15
FG%
47%
Pts
22
Vs expected
+5.3
C&S
3/4
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightHoward's strongest zone was Above — 44% from Above (4/9) vs. a 32% expectation.

Above-break three
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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