TSRBeta
Sunday, August 30, 2026 · Final

This game · 136 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots

71—97
Connecticut Sun
CONN
Sun
DAL
Wings
Dallas Wings

Dallas Wings won on finishing, not shot quality.

Arike Ogunbowale

led the way with 18 points on 6-for-12 (50%), headlined by 2-for-3 from above the break — 4.1 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher, with Alysha Clark close behind (+4.4 on 8 points, 3-for-3 on tough looks).

  1. Connecticut Sun created 9.1 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Dallas Wings outperformed expected value by 14.4 points on makes and misses.
  3. Q2 swung the look battle — Connecticut Sun built a +6.6 expected-point edge in that period.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
+9.1↑ Above avg
-9.1↑ Above avg
Shot making
-13.6↑ Above avg
+14.4↑ Above avg
Expected pts per shot
0.94
0.95

Shot diet

Dallas Wings attacked the rim more — 22% of attempts in the restricted area vs 14% for Connecticut Sun.

Jessica Shepard

carried the offense at the rim — 4/5 in the restricted area.

RimKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 14% of Connecticut's attempts came from the rim vs 22% of Dallas's, with Dallas leaning on the higher-value zone (22% vs 14%).

CONN
14%7/10 · 70% FG
DAL
22%9/14 · 64% FG
2/2 2/2
Paint
CONN
21%5/15 · 33% FG
DAL
25%11/16 · 69% FG
2/2 2/2
Corner 3
CONN
11%1/8 · 13% FG
DAL
6%2/4 · 50% FG
1/2 1/2
Short mid
CONN
11%2/8 · 25% FG
DAL
14%3/9 · 33% FG
1/2 1/3
Long mid
CONN
18%3/13 · 23% FG
DAL
14%3/9 · 33% FG
0/4 2/3
Above break
CONN
26%6/19 · 32% FG
DAL
17%5/11 · 45% FG
2/3 2/3

Possession context

CONNDAL
Transition share22%30%
Second-chance share15%10%
After-steal share4%3%
Half-court expected pts/att0.940.88
Transition expected pts/att0.941.06

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Dallas Wings won by 20.7 pts — SQ edge said CONN.

Connecticut Sun got the better looks, but Dallas Wings won the full process battle by 20.7 pts.

Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.

CONNDALEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots68.659.6CONN
Finishing vs expected-13.6+14.4DAL

ESPN box score

Free throw pts1623DAL
Turnovers711CONN
Offensive rebounds126CONN

Process value (pts)

Process total74.695.3DAL
↳ Looks + finishing55.074.0-19.0
↳ Free throws16.023.0-7.0
↳ Turnover cost-9.0-8.0-1.0
↳ Second chance12.66.3+6.3

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
6/13
FG%
46%
Pts
15
Vs expected
+1.6
C&S
1/1
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightBueckers's strongest zone was L.Mid — 50% from L.Mid (1/2) vs. a 37% expectation.

Paint (non-rim)
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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