This game · 131 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots
Atlanta Dream won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 10 points on 5-for-6 (83%), headlined by 3-for-3 from short midrange — 4.8 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Atlanta Dream created 2.4 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished below expectation — New York Liberty held up better (1.5 pts below expected).
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — New York Liberty created a +4.7 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
New York Liberty got the cleaner diet — 42% rim or corner looks vs 28% for Atlanta Dream.
carried the offense at the rim — 8/9 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 29% of Atlanta's attempts came from the paint vs 16% of New York's; Atlanta tilted here more (29% vs 16%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 29% of Atlanta's attempts came from the paint vs 16% of New York's; Atlanta tilted here more (29% vs 16%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Atlanta Dream won by 8.0 pts
Atlanta Dream won 3 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightJones was sharp — 65% of attempts from good spots, headlined by 89% from Rim (8/9) against a 58% baseline.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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