This game · 133 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Seattle Storm won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 21 points on 8-for-9 (89%), headlined by 3-for-4 from above the break — 10.8 more than expected overall (44% from the rim or corner).
- Atlanta Dream created 8.6 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Seattle Storm outperformed expected value by 24.9 points on makes and misses.
- Q3 swung the look battle — Atlanta Dream built a +6.1 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Seattle Storm (43% good looks) and Atlanta Dream (36% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
carried the offense at the rim — 4/5 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 37% of Atlanta's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 29% of Seattle's; Atlanta tilted here more (37% vs 29%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 37% of Atlanta's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 29% of Seattle's; Atlanta tilted here more (37% vs 29%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Seattle Storm won by 9.1 pts — SQ edge said ATL.
Atlanta Dream got the better looks, but Seattle Storm won the full process battle by 9.1 pts.
Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightMalonga's strongest zone was Rim — 75% from Rim (3/4) vs. a 58% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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