This game · 114 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Portland Fire won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 13 points on 5-for-10 (50%), including 2-for-5 from three — 2.6 more than expected on a night most looks were tough (30% from the rim or corner), with Frieda Buhner close behind (+3.5 on 9 points).
- Connecticut Sun created 10.6 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Portland Fire outperformed expected value by 2.2 points on makes and misses.
- Q3 swung the look battle — Connecticut Sun built a +5.6 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Connecticut Sun attacked the rim more — 37% of attempts in the restricted area vs 23% for Portland Fire.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 2/3 from long midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 37% of Connecticut's attempts came from the rim vs 23% of Portland's, with Connecticut leaning on the higher-value zone (37% vs 23%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 37% of Connecticut's attempts came from the rim vs 23% of Portland's, with Connecticut leaning on the higher-value zone (37% vs 23%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Portland Fire won by 10.6 pts — SQ edge said CONN.
Connecticut Sun got the better looks, but Portland Fire won the full process battle by 10.6 pts.
Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightLeite's strongest zone was Cor 3 — 100% from Cor 3 (1/1) vs. a 44% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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