This game · 125 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots
Atlanta Dream won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 15 points on 4-for-8 (50%), including 2-for-3 from three — 2.3 more than expected.
- Atlanta Dream created 13.5 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Atlanta Dream outperformed expected value by 3.4 points on makes and misses.
- Q3 swung the look battle — Atlanta Dream built a +6.1 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Washington Mystics (28% good looks) and Atlanta Dream (34% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 2/2 from short midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 6% of Atlanta's attempts came from short midrange vs 21% of Washington's; Washington settled here more often (21% vs 6%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 6% of Atlanta's attempts came from short midrange vs 21% of Washington's; Washington settled here more often (21% vs 6%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Atlanta Dream won by 27.8 pts
Atlanta Dream won the turnover battle by 11 (19 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightCitron created in difficult areas and delivered — 60% from Above (3/5) well above the 32% baseline for that zone.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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