This game · 124 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Minnesota Lynx won — the process matched the result.
led the way with 37 points on 11-for-17 (65%), headlined by 5-for-8 from above the break — 8.9 more than expected overall (41% from the rim or corner), with Olivia Miles close behind (+8.0 on 33 points).
- Minnesota Lynx created 0.1 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Phoenix Mercury outperformed expected value by 14.9 points on finishing.
- Q1 swung the look battle — Minnesota Lynx built a +3.1 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Phoenix Mercury lived in the midrange (21%) while Minnesota Lynx was at 8% — a cleaner profile for Minnesota Lynx.
carried the offense at the rim — 4/4 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 27% of Phoenix's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 39% of Minnesota's; Minnesota tilted here more (39% vs 27%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 27% of Phoenix's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 39% of Minnesota's; Minnesota tilted here more (39% vs 27%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Minnesota Lynx won by 8.0 pts
Minnesota Lynx won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightMcBride's strongest zone was Above — 63% from Above (5/8) vs. a 38% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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