This game · 129 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Washington Mystics won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 18 points on 8-for-9 (89%), headlined by 6-for-7 at the rim — 6.2 more than expected overall with 78% of attempts from the rim or corner.
- Washington Mystics created 6.4 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Toronto Tempo outperformed expected value by 6.3 points on makes and misses.
- Q1 swung the look battle — Washington Mystics built a +7.5 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Washington Mystics got the cleaner diet — 55% rim or corner looks vs 36% for Toronto Tempo.
carried the offense at the rim — 6/7 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 25% of Toronto's attempts came from the rim vs 52% of Washington's, with Washington leaning on the higher-value zone (52% vs 25%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 25% of Toronto's attempts came from the rim vs 52% of Washington's, with Washington leaning on the higher-value zone (52% vs 25%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Washington Mystics won by 3.5 pts
Washington Mystics won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightCitron's strongest zone was Rim — 100% from Rim (3/3) vs. a 58% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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