TSRBeta
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · Final

This game · 134 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots

77—98
Seattle Storm
SEA
Storm
LV
Aces
Las Vegas Aces

Las Vegas Aces won on finishing, not shot quality.

Jackie Young

led the way with 23 points on 10-for-15 (67%), headlined by 4-for-4 in the paint — 8.6 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.

  1. Seattle Storm created 7.5 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Las Vegas Aces outperformed expected value by 13.6 points on makes and misses.
  3. Q2 swung the look battle — Seattle Storm built a +3.9 expected-point edge in that period.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
+7.5
-7.5
Shot making
-5.9↓ Below avg
+13.6↑ Above avg
Expected pts per shot
0.97
0.97

Shot diet

Las Vegas Aces (22% good looks) and Seattle Storm (27% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.

Dominique Malonga

bailed out the offense from the midrange — 2/3 from short midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.

Rim
SEA
15%7/11 · 64% FG
LV
16%4/10 · 40% FG
2/2 2/3
Paint
SEA
30%9/21 · 43% FG
LV
21%8/13 · 62% FG
4/4 4/4
Corner 3
SEA
11%2/8 · 25% FG
LV
6%3/4 · 75% FG
1/2 2/2
Short mid
SEA
13%3/9 · 33% FG
LV
13%5/8 · 63% FG
2/3 3/6
Long mid
SEA
6%2/4 · 50% FG
LV
10%4/6 · 67% FG
0/1 1/2
Above breakKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 25% of Seattle's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 35% of Las Vegas's; Las Vegas tilted here more (35% vs 25%).

SEA
25%5/18 · 28% FG
LV
35%8/22 · 36% FG
4/7 2/2

Possession context

LV ran more early offense in this game.

Las Vegas Aces got 44% of FGA in transition (0.96 expected pts/att) vs 24% for Seattle Storm (0.99 expected pts/att).

SEALV
Transition share24%44%
Second-chance share15%10%
After-steal share6%3%
Half-court expected pts/att0.940.98
Transition expected pts/att0.990.96

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Las Vegas Aces won by 22.6 pts — SQ edge said SEA.

Seattle Storm got the better looks, but Las Vegas Aces won the full process battle by 22.6 pts.

Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.

SEALVEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots68.961.4SEA
Finishing vs expected-5.9+13.6LV

ESPN box score

Free throw pts1423LV
Turnovers2013LV
Offensive rebounds113SEA

Process value (pts)

Process total63.586.1LV
↳ Looks + finishing63.075.0-12.0
↳ Free throws14.023.0-9.0
↳ Turnover cost-25.0-15.0-10.0
↳ Second chance11.53.1+8.4

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
10/15
FG%
67%
Pts
23
Vs expected
+8.6
C&S
0/1
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightYoung's strongest zone was Paint — 100% from Paint (4/4) vs. a 41% expectation.

Above-break three
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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