This game · 131 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
New York Liberty won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 15 points on 4-for-8 (50%), headlined by 3-for-6 from above the break — 3.1 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher, with Pauline Astier close behind (+2.9 on 12 points).
- New York Liberty created 2.9 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished below expectation — Connecticut Sun held up better (5.4 pts below expected).
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — New York Liberty created a +8.3 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
New York Liberty got the cleaner diet — 43% rim or corner looks vs 30% for Connecticut Sun.
carried the offense at the rim — 4/5 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 34% of New York's attempts came from the rim vs 30% of Connecticut's, with New York leaning on the higher-value zone (34% vs 30%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 34% of New York's attempts came from the rim vs 30% of Connecticut's, with New York leaning on the higher-value zone (34% vs 30%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
New York Liberty won by 11.0 pts
New York Liberty won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightGriner's strongest zone was Above — 100% from Above (2/2) vs. a 39% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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