TSRBeta
Sunday, September 27, 2026 · Final

This game · 128 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots

91—75
New York Liberty
NY
Liberty
MIN
Lynx
Minnesota Lynx

New York Liberty won on finishing, not shot quality.

Leonie Fiebich

led the way with 16 points on 6-for-7 (86%), headlined by 3-for-4 from above the break — 8.5 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.

  1. Minnesota Lynx created 5.5 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. New York Liberty outperformed expected value by 14.6 points on makes and misses.
  3. Leonie Fiebich carried the finishing gap — +8.5 vs expected on 16 points.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
-5.5↓ Below avg
+5.5↓ Below avg
Shot making
+14.6↑ Above avg
-0.9↓ Below avg
Expected pts per shot
0.99
0.98

Shot diet

Minnesota Lynx (24% good looks) and New York Liberty (28% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.

Breanna Stewart

carried the offense at the rim — 5/6 in the restricted area.

Rim
NY
25%10/15 · 67% FG
MIN
21%7/14 · 50% FG
5/6 2/2
Paint
NY
15%4/9 · 44% FG
MIN
12%1/8 · 13% FG
2/2 1/3
Corner 3
NY
3%1/2 · 50% FG
MIN
3%1/2 · 50% FG
0/1 0/1
Short mid
NY
11%2/7 · 29% FG
MIN
10%4/7 · 57% FG
2/5 1/3
Long midKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 8% of New York's attempts came from long midrange vs 18% of Minnesota's; Minnesota settled here more often (18% vs 8%).

NY
8%2/5 · 40% FG
MIN
18%7/12 · 58% FG
0/2 1/5
Above break
NY
38%12/23 · 52% FG
MIN
36%8/24 · 33% FG
3/4 3/4

Possession context

NYMIN
Transition share23%34%
Second-chance share8%6%
After-steal share8%3%
Half-court expected pts/att0.970.99
Transition expected pts/att1.080.96

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

New York Liberty won by 22.0 pts — SQ edge said MIN.

Minnesota Lynx got the better looks, but New York Liberty won the full process battle by 22.0 pts.

Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.

NYMINEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots60.465.9MIN
Finishing vs expected+14.6-0.9NY

ESPN box score

Free throw pts1610NY
Turnovers2113MIN
Offensive rebounds55Even

Process value (pts)

Process total78.256.2NY
↳ Looks + finishing75.065.0+10.0
↳ Free throws16.010.0+6.0
↳ Turnover cost-18.0-24.0+6.0
↳ Second chance5.25.2+0.0

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
6/14
FG%
43%
Pts
12
Vs expected
-1.8
C&S
2/6
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightCollier's strongest zone was L.Mid — 67% from L.Mid (2/3) vs. a 40% expectation.

Restricted area
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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28PHX89–80TOR· Jun 27LA87–111IND· Jun 27ATL90–105SEA· Jun 27WAS57–68CONN· Jun 26POR94–124CHI· Jun 26ATL75–78GSV· Jun 26LA97–125TOR· Jun 25DAL84–99LV· Jun 25NY88–99SEA· Jun 25PHX111–109IND· Jun 24MIN78–76WAS· Jun 24POR78–101CHI· Jun 24ATL66–77GSV· Jun 24NY87–76LV· Jun 23CHI63–92CONN· Jun 22TOR87–94ATL· Jun 22PHX77–86IND· Jun 22DAL112–110SEA· Jun 22GSV73–92LV· Jun 21WAS84–79MIN· Jun 21NY97–98LA· Jun 21IND96–113ATL· Jun 20SEA73–93PHX· Jun 20CHI92–93DAL· Jun 20TOR101–97CONN· Jun 19WAS86–83NY· Jun 19MIN81–75GSV· Jun 19ATL108–101IND· Jun 18WAS88–81CONN· Jun 17NY96–95CHI· Jun 17DAL80–91GSV· Jun 17MIN99–83LA· Jun 17LV86–76PHX· Jun 17SEA89–94POR· Jun 17TOR91–113IND· Jun 16LV66–96DAL· Jun 15POR74–107MIN· Jun 15LA58–78GSV· Jun 15WAS64–86NY· Jun 14ATL102–77TOR· Jun 14IND85–75CONN· Jun 13MIN97–100LV· Jun 13DAL83–84POR· Jun 13LA111–102PHX· Jun 13TOR85–86WAS· Jun 12GSV76–72SEA· Jun 12CHI106–114IND· Jun 11NY104–90ATL· Jun 11PHX70–85DAL· Jun 11LV105–89POR· Jun 11CONN102–106TOR· Jun 10LA88–83SEA· Jun 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