This game · 130 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Golden State Valkyries won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 14 points on 5-for-8 (63%), headlined by 2-for-3 from above the break — 3.0 more than expected overall with 50% of attempts from the rim or corner, with Veronica Burton close behind (+3.0 on 14 points).
- Golden State Valkyries created 11.1 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Golden State Valkyries outperformed expected value by 0.5 points on makes and misses.
- Q1 swung the look battle — Golden State Valkyries built a +7.6 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Minnesota Lynx (29% good looks) and Golden State Valkyries (35% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
carried the offense at the rim — 3/4 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 35% of Golden State's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 42% of Minnesota's; Minnesota tilted here more (42% vs 35%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 35% of Golden State's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 42% of Minnesota's; Minnesota tilted here more (42% vs 35%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Golden State Valkyries won by 37.2 pts
Golden State Valkyries won the turnover battle by 9 (18 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightMiles struggled most from S.Mid — 0/2 against a 40% baseline.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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