This game · 157 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Toronto Tempo won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 53 points on 17-for-28 (61%), headlined by 9-for-16 from above the break — 15.8 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Toronto Tempo created 2.8 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Toronto Tempo outperformed expected value by 15.0 points on makes and misses.
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Toronto Tempo created a +5.3 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Toronto Tempo (54% good looks) and Los Angeles Sparks (48% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
carried the offense at the rim — 5/5 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 36% of Los Angeles's attempts came from the rim vs 39% of Toronto's, with Toronto leaning on the higher-value zone (39% vs 36%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 36% of Los Angeles's attempts came from the rim vs 39% of Toronto's, with Toronto leaning on the higher-value zone (39% vs 36%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Toronto Tempo won by 37.3 pts
Toronto Tempo won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightMabrey created in difficult areas and delivered — 56% from Above (9/16) well above the 31% baseline for that zone.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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