This game · 132 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
New York Liberty won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 17 points on 6-for-9 (67%), headlined by 4-for-7 from above the break — 7.1 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Connecticut Sun created 1.7 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- New York Liberty outperformed expected value by 4.2 points on makes and misses.
- Q3 swung the look battle — Connecticut Sun built a +4.2 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Connecticut Sun (43% good looks) and New York Liberty (43% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
carried the offense at the rim — 6/7 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 14% of New York's attempts came from the paint vs 6% of Connecticut's; New York tilted here more (14% vs 6%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 14% of New York's attempts came from the paint vs 6% of Connecticut's; New York tilted here more (14% vs 6%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
New York Liberty won by 5.7 pts — SQ edge said CONN.
Connecticut Sun won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightLeger-Walker's strongest zone was Above — 50% from Above (4/8) vs. a 35% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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