This game · 116 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Seattle Storm won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 24 points on 7-for-12 (58%), headlined by 3-for-5 from above the break — 6.6 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Seattle Storm created 4.0 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Seattle Storm outperformed expected value by 5.9 points on makes and misses.
- Seattle Storm created volume from above the break (42%) without the same value as rim or corner looks.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Seattle Storm (25% good looks) and Washington Mystics (23% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 33% of Washington's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 42% of Seattle's; Seattle tilted here more (42% vs 33%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 33% of Washington's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 42% of Seattle's; Seattle tilted here more (42% vs 33%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Seattle Storm won by 5.9 pts
Washington Mystics won 3 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightJohnson's strongest zone was Above — 50% from Above (3/6) vs. a 34% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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