This game · 148 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots
Atlanta Dream won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 23 points on 9-for-15 (60%), headlined by 4-for-4 at the rim — 5.6 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Atlanta Dream created 20.9 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- New York Liberty outperformed expected value by 17.1 points on makes and misses.
- Q1 swung the look battle — Atlanta Dream built a +5.9 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Atlanta Dream (43% good looks) and New York Liberty (36% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
carried the offense at the rim — 6/6 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 34% of New York's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 25% of Atlanta's; New York tilted here more (34% vs 25%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 34% of New York's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 25% of Atlanta's; New York tilted here more (34% vs 25%).
Possession context
ATL ran more early offense in this game.
Atlanta Dream got 30% of FGA in transition (1.04 expected pts/att) vs 17% for New York Liberty (1.04 expected pts/att).
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Atlanta Dream won by 27.3 pts
Atlanta Dream won the turnover battle by 8 (17 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightHoward lived in the midrange — 40% of attempts from tough spots, dragging shot quality down.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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