This game · 133 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Minnesota Lynx won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 30 points on 13-for-20 (65%), headlined by 2-for-2 from above the break — 10.8 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Minnesota Lynx created 4.6 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Minnesota Lynx outperformed expected value by 30.3 points on makes and misses.
- Q1 swung the look battle — Minnesota Lynx built a +3.7 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Minnesota Lynx attacked the rim more — 20% of attempts in the restricted area vs 11% for Phoenix Mercury.
carried the offense at the rim — 4/5 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 20% of Minnesota's attempts came from the rim vs 11% of Phoenix's, with Minnesota leaning on the higher-value zone (20% vs 11%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 20% of Minnesota's attempts came from the rim vs 11% of Phoenix's, with Minnesota leaning on the higher-value zone (20% vs 11%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Minnesota Lynx won by 40.9 pts
Minnesota Lynx got the better looks, but Phoenix Mercury carried the process scorecard.
Phoenix Mercury won the free-throw line by 10 pts. Those stops never show up in expected pts per attempt.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightCopper's strongest zone was Above — 50% from Above (1/2) vs. a 28% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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