This game · 135 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Minnesota Lynx won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 13 points on 5-for-7 (71%), headlined by 3-for-4 from above the break — 5.2 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Phoenix Mercury created 6.8 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Minnesota Lynx outperformed expected value by 2.8 points on makes and misses.
- Q2 swung the look battle — Phoenix Mercury built a +7.6 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Minnesota Lynx attacked the rim more — 45% of attempts in the restricted area vs 37% for Phoenix Mercury.
carried the offense at the rim — 6/7 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 45% of Minnesota's attempts came from the rim vs 37% of Phoenix's, with Minnesota leaning on the higher-value zone (45% vs 37%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 45% of Minnesota's attempts came from the rim vs 37% of Phoenix's, with Minnesota leaning on the higher-value zone (45% vs 37%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Phoenix Mercury won by 5.0 pts
Phoenix Mercury won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightCopper's strongest zone was Rim — 67% from Rim (6/9) vs. a 56% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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