This game · 121 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Golden State Valkyries won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 21 points on 7-for-10 (70%), headlined by 4-for-5 from above the break — 7.8 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Golden State Valkyries created 15.5 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished close to expectation on makes and misses.
- Q2 swung the look battle — Golden State Valkyries built a +6.9 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Phoenix Mercury lived in the midrange (22%) while Golden State Valkyries was at 12% — a cleaner profile for Golden State Valkyries.
carried the offense at the rim — 4/5 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 30% of Phoenix's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 42% of Golden State's; Golden State tilted here more (42% vs 30%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 30% of Phoenix's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 42% of Golden State's; Golden State tilted here more (42% vs 30%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Golden State Valkyries won by 31.1 pts
Golden State Valkyries won the turnover battle by 6 (17 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightThornton's strongest zone was Above — 60% from Above (3/5) vs. a 37% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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