This game · 138 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
New York Liberty won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 27 points on 9-for-14 (64%), headlined by 7-for-11 from above the break — 10.6 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- New York Liberty created 12.9 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- New York Liberty outperformed expected value by 15.2 points on makes and misses.
- Q2 swung the look battle — New York Liberty built a +7.2 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
New York Liberty (41% good looks) and Las Vegas Aces (41% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
carried the offense at the rim — 5/5 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 5% of Las Vegas's attempts came from the paint vs 16% of New York's; New York tilted here more (16% vs 5%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 5% of Las Vegas's attempts came from the paint vs 16% of New York's; New York tilted here more (16% vs 5%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
New York Liberty won by 56.4 pts
New York Liberty won 3 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightJohannes's strongest zone was Above — 64% from Above (7/11) vs. a 33% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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