This game · 141 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Atlanta Dream won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 29 points on 7-for-11 (64%), headlined by 3-for-5 from above the break — 5.5 more than expected overall (46% from the rim or corner).
- Atlanta Dream created 8.7 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Chicago Sky outperformed expected value by 2.5 points on makes and misses.
- Q2 swung the look battle — Atlanta Dream built a +7.8 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Atlanta Dream (61% good looks) and Chicago Sky (66% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
carried the offense at the rim — 6/8 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 60% of Chicago's attempts came from the rim vs 57% of Atlanta's, with Chicago leaning on the higher-value zone (60% vs 57%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 60% of Chicago's attempts came from the rim vs 57% of Atlanta's, with Chicago leaning on the higher-value zone (60% vs 57%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Atlanta Dream won by 11.4 pts
Atlanta Dream won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightReese found the right spots (92% from the rim or corner) but couldn't finish — -8.5 below expected on those looks.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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