This game · 128 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Washington Mystics won on finishing, not shot quality.
scored with 8 points on 4-for-6 (67%) — 1.6 more than expected (67% from the rim or corner).
- New York Liberty created 5.8 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Washington Mystics outperformed expected value by 1.0 points on makes and misses.
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — New York Liberty created a +4.5 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Washington Mystics attacked the rim more — 39% of attempts in the restricted area vs 23% for New York Liberty.
carried the offense at the rim — 7/9 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 39% of Washington's attempts came from the rim vs 23% of New York's, with Washington leaning on the higher-value zone (39% vs 23%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 39% of Washington's attempts came from the rim vs 23% of New York's, with Washington leaning on the higher-value zone (39% vs 23%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Washington Mystics won by 4.1 pts — SQ edge said NY.
Washington Mystics won 3 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightIonescu's strongest zone was Cor 3 — 50% from Cor 3 (1/2) vs. a 38% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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