TSRBeta
Monday, June 22, 2026 · Final

This game · 132 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots

77—86
Phoenix Mercury
PHX
Mercury
IND
Fever
Indiana Fever

Indiana Fever won on finishing, not shot quality.

Caitlin Clark

led the way with 24 points on 8-for-17 (47%), headlined by 2-for-2 in the interior — 3.6 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher, with Monique Billings close behind (+3.3 on 14 points, 4-for-4 on tough looks).

  1. Phoenix Mercury created 3.9 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Both teams finished below expectation — Indiana Fever held up better (1.9 pts below expected).
  3. The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Phoenix Mercury created a +4.8 expected-point edge in Q4.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
+3.9↓ Below avg
-3.9↓ Below avg
Shot making
-8.7
-1.9↓ Below avg
Expected pts per shot
1.03
1.03

Shot diet

Indiana Fever (38% good looks) and Phoenix Mercury (37% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.

Kahleah Copper

carried the offense at the rim — 4/5 in the restricted area.

Rim
PHX
29%11/20 · 55% FG
IND
25%10/16 · 63% FG
2/2 4/4
Paint
PHX
12%7/8 · 88% FG
IND
6%1/4 · 25% FG
5/5 0/1
Corner 3
PHX
7%0/5 · 0% FG
IND
13%4/8 · 50% FG
0/2 1/2
Short mid
PHX
9%3/6 · 50% FG
IND
5%2/3 · 67% FG
1/2 0/1
Long mid
PHX
13%2/9 · 22% FG
IND
11%4/7 · 57% FG
0/3 2/4
Above breakKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 29% of Phoenix's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 41% of Indiana's; Indiana tilted here more (41% vs 29%).

PHX
29%5/20 · 25% FG
IND
41%6/26 · 23% FG
1/2 2/9

Possession context

PHXIND
Transition share24%34%
Second-chance share13%13%
After-steal share1%6%
Half-court expected pts/att1.021.02
Transition expected pts/att1.050.97

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Indiana Fever won by 15.2 pts — SQ edge said PHX.

Phoenix Mercury got the better looks, but Indiana Fever won the full process battle by 15.2 pts.

Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.

PHXINDEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots69.765.9PHX
Finishing vs expected-8.7-1.9IND

ESPN box score

Free throw pts1622IND
Turnovers1315PHX
Offensive rebounds812IND

Process value (pts)

Process total66.481.6IND
↳ Looks + finishing61.064.0-3.0
↳ Free throws16.022.0-6.0
↳ Turnover cost-19.0-17.0-2.0
↳ Second chance8.412.6-4.2

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
8/20
FG%
40%
Pts
22
Vs expected
-1.3
C&S
1/4
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightMitchell's strongest zone was Cor 3 — 100% from Cor 3 (1/1) vs. a 32% expectation.

Above-break three
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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23CHI63–92CONN· Jun 22TOR87–94ATL· Jun 22PHX77–86IND· Jun 22DAL112–110SEA· Jun 22GSV73–92LV· Jun 21WAS84–79MIN· Jun 21NY97–98LA· Jun 21IND96–113ATL· Jun 20SEA73–93PHX· Jun 20CHI92–93DAL· Jun 20TOR101–97CONN· Jun 19WAS86–83NY· Jun 19MIN81–75GSV· Jun 19ATL108–101IND· Jun 18WAS88–81CONN· Jun 17NY96–95CHI· Jun 17DAL80–91GSV· Jun 17MIN99–83LA· Jun 17LV86–76PHX· Jun 17SEA89–94POR· Jun 17TOR91–113IND· Jun 16LV66–96DAL· Jun 15POR74–107MIN· Jun 15LA58–78GSV· Jun 15WAS64–86NY· Jun 14ATL102–77TOR· Jun 14IND85–75CONN· Jun 13MIN97–100LV· Jun 13DAL83–84POR· Jun 13LA111–102PHX· Jun 13TOR85–86WAS· Jun 12GSV76–72SEA· Jun 12CHI106–114IND· Jun 11NY104–90ATL· Jun 11PHX70–85DAL· Jun 11LV105–89POR· Jun 11CONN102–106TOR· Jun 10LA88–83SEA· Jun 10ATL82–75CHI· Jun 9DAL76–100MIN· Jun 9PHX81–87GSV· Jun 9NY89–80CONN· Jun 8IND78–76WAS· Jun 8SEA91–101LV· Jun 8CHI68–85TOR· Jun 7POR72–89LA· Jun 7SEA68–88MIN· Jun 6GSV79–84LV· Jun 6WAS77–109ATL· Jun 6IND75–83NY· Jun 6CONN80–85CHI· Jun 5DAL104–96LA· Jun 5PHX78–72POR· Jun 5ATL71–83IND· Jun 4GSV84–87MIN· Jun 4TOR82–97NY· Jun 3PHX72–68SEA· Jun 3CONN75–91ATL· Jun 2CHI72–90WAS· Jun 2POR77–95GSV· Jun 2LV79–69LA· Jun 2SEA56–79DAL· Jun 1MIN111–77PHX· Jun 1LV91–81GSV· May 31SEA72–93TOR· May 30LA81–84CONN· May 30IND84–100POR· May 30PHX68–75NY· May 29LA92–87WAS· May 29MIN79–58CHI· May 29ATL86–66POR· May 29LV87–95DAL· May 28IND88–90GSV· May 28PHX74–84NY· May 27TOR111–104CHI· May 27ATL81–96MIN· May 27CONN61–71POR· May 27WAS78–64SEA· May 27POR81–74NY· May 25CONN70–97GSV· May 25PHX80–82ATL· May 24DAL91–76NY· May 24WAS85–97SEA· May 24MIN85–75CHI· May 23POR99–80TOR· May 23LA101–95LV· May 23DAL69–86ATL· May 22GSV82–90IND· May 22CONN59–77SEA· May 22GSV87–70NY· May 21TOR72–100MIN· May 21LA97–88PHX· May 21POR73–90IND· May 20DAL99–89CHI· May 20CONN80–78SEA· May 20TOR98–90PHX· May 19WAS69–92DAL· May 18CONN82–83POR· May 18CHI86–79MIN· May 17LV85–84ATL· May 17SEA78–89IND· May 17TOR106–96LA· May 17LV101–94CONN· May 15WAS104–102IND· May 15TOR95–99LA· May 15CHI83–91PHX· May 15MIN90–86DAL· May 14NY100–82POR· May 14SEA73–86TOR· May 13LV98–69CONN· May 13CHI69–63GSV· May 13IND87–78LA· May 13ATL77–72DAL· May 12MIN88–84PHX· May 12NY96–98POR· May 12SEA89–82CONN· May 10NY98–93WAS· May 10LV105–78LA· May 10PHX79–95GSV· May 10DAL107–104IND· May 9PHX99–66LV· May 9CHI98–83POR· May 9ATL91–90MIN· May 9CONN75–106NY· May 8WAS68–65TOR· May 8GSV91–80SEA· May 8NY79–67CONN· May 3LV84–101DAL· May 3LA85–75POR· May 3WAS83–72ATL· May 3TOR66–73MIN· May 1