This game · 137 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Chicago Sky won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 26 points on 8-for-12 (67%), headlined by 8-for-12 at the rim — 2.1 more than expected overall with 100% of attempts from the rim or corner.
- Connecticut Sun created 1.2 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished below expectation — Chicago Sky held up better (1.8 pts below expected).
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Connecticut Sun created a +4.3 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Chicago Sky attacked the rim more — 55% of attempts in the restricted area vs 43% for Connecticut Sun.
carried the offense at the rim — 6/7 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 43% of Connecticut's attempts came from the rim vs 55% of Chicago's, with Chicago leaning on the higher-value zone (55% vs 43%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 43% of Connecticut's attempts came from the rim vs 55% of Chicago's, with Chicago leaning on the higher-value zone (55% vs 43%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Chicago Sky won by 14.9 pts — SQ edge said CONN.
Connecticut Sun got the better looks, but Chicago Sky won the full process battle by 14.9 pts.
Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightCardoso was sharp — 100% of attempts from good spots, headlined by 67% from Rim (8/12) against a 58% baseline.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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