TSRBeta
Saturday, June 13, 2026 · Final

This game · 159 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots

111—102
Los Angeles Sparks
LA
Sparks
PHX
Mercury
Phoenix Mercury

Los Angeles Sparks won on finishing, not shot quality.

Rae Burrell

led the way with 24 points on 9-for-15 (60%), headlined by 4-for-5 at the rim — 5.1 more than expected overall (40% from the rim or corner).

  1. Phoenix Mercury created 2.2 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Both teams finished close to expectation on makes and misses.
  3. The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Phoenix Mercury created a +6.3 expected-point edge in Q4.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
-2.2↓ Below avg
+2.2↓ Below avg
Shot making
+14.3↑ Above avg
+14.1↑ Above avg
Expected pts per shot
0.97
0.99

Shot diet

Phoenix Mercury (28% good looks) and Los Angeles Sparks (25% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.

Kelsey Plum

bailed out the offense from the midrange — 4/7 from short midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.

Rim
LA
19%10/15 · 67% FG
PHX
15%9/12 · 75% FG
4/5 3/3
Paint
LA
15%4/12 · 33% FG
PHX
21%11/17 · 65% FG
2/3 6/7
Corner 3
LA
6%2/5 · 40% FG
PHX
13%3/10 · 30% FG
1/3 2/4
Short mid
LA
16%6/13 · 46% FG
PHX
10%3/8 · 38% FG
4/7 1/3
Long mid
LA
6%3/5 · 60% FG
PHX
10%4/8 · 50% FG
2/2 1/4
Above breakKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 37% of Los Angeles's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 31% of Phoenix's; Los Angeles tilted here more (37% vs 31%).

LA
37%13/29 · 45% FG
PHX
31%10/25 · 40% FG
3/5 3/5

Possession context

LAPHX
Transition share22%25%
Second-chance share10%10%
After-steal share3%5%
Half-court expected pts/att0.961.02
Transition expected pts/att0.960.95

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Los Angeles Sparks won by 17.0 pts — SQ edge said PHX.

Phoenix Mercury got the better looks, but Los Angeles Sparks won the full process battle by 17.0 pts.

Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.

LAPHXEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots76.778.9PHX
Finishing vs expected+14.3+14.1LA

ESPN box score

Free throw pts209LA
Turnovers1215LA
Offensive rebounds109LA

Process value (pts)

Process total113.596.4LA
↳ Looks + finishing91.093.0-2.0
↳ Free throws20.09.0+11.0
↳ Turnover cost-8.0-15.0+7.0
↳ Second chance10.59.4+1.0

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
16/30
FG%
53%
Pts
41
Vs expected
+9.4
C&S
4/8
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightCopper's strongest zone was Paint — 86% from Paint (6/7) vs. a 39% expectation.

Above-break three
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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