TSRBeta
Wednesday, June 3, 2026 · Final

This game · 137 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots

72—68
Phoenix Mercury
PHX
Mercury
SEA
Storm
Seattle Storm

Phoenix Mercury won on finishing, not shot quality.

Natasha Mack

led the way with 16 points on 7-for-7 (100%), headlined by 6-for-6 in the interior — 6.2 more than expected overall with 71% of attempts from the rim or corner.

  1. Seattle Storm created 8.4 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Both teams finished below expectation — Seattle Storm held up better (7.9 pts below expected).
  3. Q1 swung the look battle — Seattle Storm built a +4.7 expected-point edge in that period.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
-8.4
+8.4↑ Above avg
Shot making
-13.4↑ Above avg
-7.9
Expected pts per shot
1.01
1.00

Shot diet

Phoenix Mercury got the cleaner diet — 41% rim or corner looks vs 27% for Seattle Storm.

Natasha Mack

carried the offense at the rim — 5/5 in the restricted area.

RimKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 31% of Phoenix's attempts came from the rim vs 21% of Seattle's, with Phoenix leaning on the higher-value zone (31% vs 21%).

PHX
31%15/20 · 75% FG
SEA
21%10/15 · 67% FG
5/5 2/2
Paint
PHX
13%2/8 · 25% FG
SEA
8%2/6 · 33% FG
0/3 1/2
Corner 3
PHX
9%2/6 · 33% FG
SEA
7%1/5 · 20% FG
1/2 0/1
Short mid
PHX
6%0/4 · 0% FG
SEA
14%2/10 · 20% FG
0/2 1/5
Long mid
PHX
16%4/10 · 40% FG
SEA
12%5/9 · 56% FG
1/2 3/3
Above break
PHX
25%1/16 · 6% FG
SEA
38%8/28 · 29% FG
1/4 3/7

Possession context

PHX ran more early offense in this game.

Phoenix Mercury got 36% of FGA in transition (1.00 expected pts/att) vs 21% for Seattle Storm (1.01 expected pts/att).

PHXSEA
Transition share36%21%
Second-chance share13%14%
After-steal share5%5%
Half-court expected pts/att1.000.99
Transition expected pts/att1.001.01

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Phoenix Mercury won by 10.3 pts — SQ edge said SEA.

Seattle Storm got the better looks, but Phoenix Mercury won the full process battle by 10.3 pts.

Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.

PHXSEAEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots64.472.9SEA
Finishing vs expected-13.4-7.9SEA

ESPN box score

Free throw pts213PHX
Turnovers1414Even
Offensive rebounds104PHX

Process value (pts)

Process total68.558.2PHX
↳ Looks + finishing51.065.0-14.0
↳ Free throws21.03.0+18.0
↳ Turnover cost-14.0-14.0+0.0
↳ Second chance10.54.2+6.3

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
6/17
FG%
35%
Pts
15
Vs expected
-0.9
C&S
0/3
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightHiedeman lived in the midrange — 41% of attempts from tough spots, dragging shot quality down.

Above-break three
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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15MIN90–86DAL· May 14NY100–82POR· May 14SEA73–86TOR· May 13LV98–69CONN· May 13CHI69–63GSV· May 13IND87–78LA· May 13ATL77–72DAL· May 12MIN88–84PHX· May 12NY96–98POR· May 12SEA89–82CONN· May 10NY98–93WAS· May 10LV105–78LA· May 10PHX79–95GSV· May 10DAL107–104IND· May 9PHX99–66LV· May 9CHI98–83POR· May 9ATL91–90MIN· May 9CONN75–106NY· May 8WAS68–65TOR· May 8GSV91–80SEA· May 8NY79–67CONN· May 3LV84–101DAL· May 3LA85–75POR· May 3WAS83–72ATL· May 3TOR66–73MIN· May 1