TSRBeta
Tuesday, September 22, 2026 · Final

This game · 137 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots

79—89
Los Angeles Sparks
LA
Sparks
LV
Aces
Las Vegas Aces

Las Vegas Aces won by getting the better shots.

Stephanie Talbot

led the way with 14 points on 6-for-8 (75%), headlined by 3-for-3 at the rim — 5.1 more than expected overall with 63% of attempts from the rim or corner, with Chelsea Gray close behind (+4.2 on 17 points).

  1. Las Vegas Aces created 6.9 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Las Vegas Aces outperformed expected value by 7.8 points on finishing.
  3. Q1 swung the look battle — Las Vegas Aces built a +6.6 expected-point edge in that period.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
-6.9
+6.9
Shot making
+6.7↓ Below avg
+7.8↓ Below avg
Expected pts per shot
0.96
1.02

Shot diet

Las Vegas Aces got the cleaner diet — 37% rim or corner looks vs 27% for Los Angeles Sparks.

Nneka Ogwumike

bailed out the offense from the midrange — 3/5 from short midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.

RimKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 22% of Los Angeles's attempts came from the rim vs 27% of Las Vegas's, with Las Vegas leaning on the higher-value zone (27% vs 22%).

LA
22%10/15 · 67% FG
LV
27%13/19 · 68% FG
2/2 3/3
Paint
LA
18%4/12 · 33% FG
LV
13%5/9 · 56% FG
1/2 2/2
Corner 3
LA
4%1/3 · 33% FG
LV
10%4/7 · 57% FG
0/1 1/2
Short mid
LA
15%6/10 · 60% FG
LV
13%5/9 · 56% FG
3/5 2/3
Long mid
LA
13%5/9 · 56% FG
LV
7%0/5 · 0% FG
1/3 0/2
Above break
LA
27%6/18 · 33% FG
LV
30%7/21 · 33% FG
2/2 2/3

Possession context

LALV
Transition share22%29%
Second-chance share7%10%
After-steal share7%4%
Half-court expected pts/att0.961.00
Transition expected pts/att0.921.05

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Las Vegas Aces won by 19.0 pts

Las Vegas Aces won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.

Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.

LALVEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots64.371.2LV
Finishing vs expected+6.7+7.8LV

ESPN box score

Free throw pts810LV
Turnovers1310LV
Offensive rebounds65LA

Process value (pts)

Process total67.386.2LV
↳ Looks + finishing71.079.0-8.0
↳ Free throws8.010.0-2.0
↳ Turnover cost-18.0-8.0-10.0
↳ Second chance6.35.2+1.0

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
6/16
FG%
38%
Pts
14
Vs expected
-2.1
C&S
—
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightYoung's strongest zone was Paint — 100% from Paint (2/2) vs. a 41% expectation.

Above-break three
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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