This game · 124 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Indiana Fever won by getting the better shots.
made every look count with 8 points on 3-for-3 (100%) on 3 looks worth 3.6 expected (at the rim, from the corner, from above the break) — 4.4 more than expected overall with 67% of attempts from the rim or corner.
- Indiana Fever created 4.4 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Indiana Fever outperformed expected value by 2.6 points on makes and misses.
- Q1 swung the look battle — Indiana Fever built a +5.6 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Washington Mystics got the cleaner diet — 52% rim or corner looks vs 39% for Indiana Fever.
carried the offense at the rim — 4/4 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 26% of Indiana's attempts came from the rim vs 43% of Washington's, with Washington leaning on the higher-value zone (43% vs 26%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 26% of Indiana's attempts came from the rim vs 43% of Washington's, with Washington leaning on the higher-value zone (43% vs 26%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Washington Mystics won by 4.1 pts — SQ edge said IND.
Washington Mystics won the turnover battle by 5 (20 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightAustin found the right spots (64% from the rim or corner) but couldn't finish — -3.8 below expected on those looks.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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