This game · 146 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Las Vegas Aces won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 28 points on 11-for-17 (65%), headlined by 4-for-7 from above the break — 8.8 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Atlanta Dream created 9.7 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Las Vegas Aces outperformed expected value by 27.4 points on makes and misses.
- Q1 swung the look battle — Atlanta Dream built a +8.5 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Atlanta Dream got the cleaner diet — 55% rim or corner looks vs 37% for Las Vegas Aces.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 4/4 from short midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 37% of Las Vegas's attempts came from the rim vs 48% of Atlanta's, with Atlanta leaning on the higher-value zone (48% vs 37%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 37% of Las Vegas's attempts came from the rim vs 48% of Atlanta's, with Atlanta leaning on the higher-value zone (48% vs 37%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Las Vegas Aces won by 21.7 pts — SQ edge said ATL.
Atlanta Dream got the better looks, but Las Vegas Aces won the full process battle by 21.7 pts.
Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightReese found the right spots (74% from the rim or corner) but couldn't finish — -0.3 below expected on those looks.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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