TSRBeta
Monday, August 24, 2026 · Final

This game · 142 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots

78—71
Atlanta Dream
ATL
Dream
LA
Sparks
Los Angeles Sparks

Atlanta Dream won by getting the better shots.

Allisha Gray

led the way with 20 points on 7-for-11 (64%), headlined by 4-for-4 in the interior — 4.1 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher, with Naz Hillmon close behind (+3.9 on 12 points).

  1. Atlanta Dream created 12.7 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Both teams finished below expectation — Los Angeles Sparks held up better (5.7 pts below expected).
  3. Q1 swung the look battle — Atlanta Dream built a +5.4 expected-point edge in that period.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
+12.7↑ Above avg
-12.7↑ Above avg
Shot making
-7.4↓ Below avg
-5.7↓ Below avg
Expected pts per shot
0.98
0.91↓ Below avg

Shot diet

Los Angeles Sparks lived in the midrange (31%) while Atlanta Dream was at 11% — a cleaner profile for Atlanta Dream.

Nneka Ogwumike

bailed out the offense from the midrange — 6/8 from short midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.

Rim
ATL
15%7/11 · 64% FG
LA
13%6/9 · 67% FG
2/2 2/2
Paint
ATL
36%14/27 · 52% FG
LA
27%5/18 · 28% FG
2/2 1/2
Corner 3
ATL
4%1/3 · 33% FG
LA
3%0/2 · 0% FG
1/2 0/1
Short midKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 7% of Atlanta's attempts came from short midrange vs 24% of Los Angeles's; Los Angeles settled here more often (24% vs 7%).

ATL
7%3/5 · 60% FG
LA
24%11/16 · 69% FG
1/3 6/8
Long mid
ATL
4%0/3 · 0% FG
LA
7%1/5 · 20% FG
0/1 1/3
Above break
ATL
35%5/26 · 19% FG
LA
25%3/17 · 18% FG
2/3 2/5

Possession context

ATLLA
Transition share24%21%
Second-chance share20%12%
After-steal share7%6%
Half-court expected pts/att0.930.87
Transition expected pts/att1.010.93

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Atlanta Dream won by 22.4 pts

Los Angeles Sparks won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.

Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.

ATLLAEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots73.460.7ATL
Finishing vs expected-7.4-5.7LA

ESPN box score

Free throw pts1216LA
Turnovers1511LA
Offensive rebounds157ATL

Process value (pts)

Process total82.760.3ATL
↳ Looks + finishing66.055.0+11.0
↳ Free throws12.016.0-4.0
↳ Turnover cost-11.0-18.0+7.0
↳ Second chance15.77.3+8.4

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
11/19
FG%
58%
Pts
27
Vs expected
+4.8
C&S
0/4
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightOgwumike created in difficult areas and delivered — 75% from S.Mid (6/8) well above the 40% baseline for that zone.

Short midrangeShort midrange
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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