This game · 125 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Las Vegas Aces won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 21 points on 9-for-12 (75%), headlined by 6-for-6 in the paint — 9.3 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Golden State Valkyries created 10.1 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Las Vegas Aces outperformed expected value by 27.1 points on makes and misses.
- Q3 swung the look battle — Golden State Valkyries built a +7.4 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Golden State Valkyries attacked the rim more — 12% of attempts in the restricted area vs 3% for Las Vegas Aces.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 4/4 from short midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 18% of Golden State's attempts came from the paint vs 34% of Las Vegas's; Las Vegas tilted here more (34% vs 18%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 18% of Golden State's attempts came from the paint vs 34% of Las Vegas's; Las Vegas tilted here more (34% vs 18%).
Possession context
LV ran more early offense in this game.
Las Vegas Aces got 24% of FGA in transition (0.99 expected pts/att) vs 12% for Golden State Valkyries (1.02 expected pts/att).
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Las Vegas Aces won by 13.6 pts — SQ edge said GSV.
Golden State Valkyries got the better looks, but Las Vegas Aces won the full process battle by 13.6 pts.
Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightWilson created in difficult areas and delivered — 100% from S.Mid (4/4) well above the 40% baseline for that zone.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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