This game · 138 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Dallas Wings won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 34 points on 13-for-22 (59%), headlined by 7-for-11 from long midrange — 9.3 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Dallas Wings created 8.8 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Toronto Tempo outperformed expected value by 19.3 points on finishing.
- Q3 swung the look battle — Dallas Wings built a +5.5 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Toronto Tempo got the cleaner diet — 42% rim or corner looks vs 28% for Dallas Wings.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 7/11 from long midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 24% of Dallas's attempts came from long midrange vs 5% of Toronto's; Dallas settled here more often (24% vs 5%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 24% of Dallas's attempts came from long midrange vs 5% of Toronto's; Dallas settled here more often (24% vs 5%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Dallas Wings won by 31.3 pts
Dallas Wings won the turnover battle by 7 (14 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightMabrey created in difficult areas and delivered — 71% from Above (5/7) well above the 32% baseline for that zone.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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