This game · 118 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Los Angeles Sparks won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 17 points on 5-for-9 (56%), including 2-for-3 from three — 2.4 more than expected (44% from the rim or corner), with Dearica Hamby close behind (+2.6 on 13 points).
- Los Angeles Sparks created 11.4 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished below expectation — Portland Fire held up better (3.3 pts below expected).
- Q3 swung the look battle — Los Angeles Sparks built a +9.6 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Portland Fire got the cleaner diet — 44% rim or corner looks vs 33% for Los Angeles Sparks.
carried the offense at the rim — 4/4 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 25% of Los Angeles's attempts came from the rim vs 37% of Portland's, with Portland leaning on the higher-value zone (37% vs 25%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 25% of Los Angeles's attempts came from the rim vs 37% of Portland's, with Portland leaning on the higher-value zone (37% vs 25%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Los Angeles Sparks won by 20.2 pts
Los Angeles Sparks won 3 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightCarleton's strongest zone was S.Mid — 67% from S.Mid (2/3) vs. a 40% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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