This game · 143 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Atlanta Dream won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 15 points on 6-for-10 (60%), headlined by 3-for-4 at the rim — 2.2 more than expected overall with 80% of attempts from the rim or corner.
- Atlanta Dream created 9.1 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Minnesota Lynx outperformed expected value by 6.2 points on makes and misses.
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Atlanta Dream created a +5.0 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Atlanta Dream got the cleaner diet — 47% rim or corner looks vs 34% for Minnesota Lynx.
carried the offense at the rim — 6/8 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 4% of Atlanta's attempts came from long midrange vs 23% of Minnesota's; Minnesota settled here more often (23% vs 4%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 4% of Atlanta's attempts came from long midrange vs 23% of Minnesota's; Minnesota settled here more often (23% vs 4%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Atlanta Dream won by 1.6 pts
Minnesota Lynx won the turnover battle by 6 (21 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightWilliams lived in the midrange — 61% of attempts from tough spots, dragging shot quality down.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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