This game · 144 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Toronto Tempo won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 31 points on 10-for-19 (53%), headlined by 3-for-6 from above the break — 6.1 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher, with Marina Mabrey close behind (+5.9 on 30 points).
- Toronto Tempo created 3.5 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Toronto Tempo outperformed expected value by 7.0 points on makes and misses.
- Toronto Tempo created volume from above the break (39%) without the same value as rim or corner looks.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Phoenix Mercury got the cleaner diet — 50% rim or corner looks vs 38% for Toronto Tempo.
carried the offense at the rim — 6/6 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 28% of Toronto's attempts came from the rim vs 44% of Phoenix's, with Phoenix leaning on the higher-value zone (44% vs 28%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 28% of Toronto's attempts came from the rim vs 44% of Phoenix's, with Phoenix leaning on the higher-value zone (44% vs 28%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Toronto Tempo won by 11.0 pts
Phoenix Mercury won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightCopper's strongest zone was S.Mid — 67% from S.Mid (2/3) vs. a 39% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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