This game · 142 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots
Golden State Valkyries won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 11 points on 5-for-5 (100%), headlined by 4-for-4 in the interior — 5.4 more than expected overall with 80% of attempts from the rim or corner.
- Golden State Valkyries created 8.3 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished close to expectation on makes and misses.
- Q2 swung the look battle — Golden State Valkyries built a +8.5 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Golden State Valkyries attacked the rim more — 20% of attempts in the restricted area vs 12% for Las Vegas Aces.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 2/3 from long midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 24% of Golden State's attempts came from the paint vs 32% of Las Vegas's; Las Vegas tilted here more (32% vs 24%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 24% of Golden State's attempts came from the paint vs 32% of Las Vegas's; Las Vegas tilted here more (32% vs 24%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Golden State Valkyries won by 24.2 pts
Golden State Valkyries won 3 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightWilson struggled most from Cor 3 — 0/2 against a 44% baseline.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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