This game · 141 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots
Atlanta Dream won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 23 points on 8-for-16 (50%), headlined by 6-for-10 from above the break — 4.6 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Atlanta Dream created 4.0 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Atlanta Dream outperformed expected value by 2.4 points on makes and misses.
- Q1 swung the look battle — Minnesota Lynx built a +3.6 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Minnesota Lynx lived in the midrange (27%) while Atlanta Dream was at 10% — a cleaner profile for Atlanta Dream.
found the right spots — 6 attempts at the rim — but couldn't convert, going 1/6.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 21% of Minnesota's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 46% of Atlanta's; Atlanta tilted here more (46% vs 21%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 21% of Minnesota's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 46% of Atlanta's; Atlanta tilted here more (46% vs 21%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Atlanta Dream won by 0.1 pts
Minnesota Lynx won the turnover battle by 7 (18 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightGray's strongest zone was Above — 60% from Above (6/10) vs. a 37% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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