This game · 138 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Dallas Wings won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 32 points on 12-for-22 (55%), headlined by 4-for-7 from short midrange — 7.9 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher, with Jessica Shepard close behind (+7.5 on 26 points).
- Dallas Wings created 3.9 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Dallas Wings outperformed expected value by 6.4 points on makes and misses.
- Dallas Wings lived in the midrange — 47% of attempts from low-value zones.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Dallas Wings lived in the midrange (47%) while Indiana Fever was at 20% — a cleaner profile for Indiana Fever.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 4/7 from short midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 3% of Indiana's attempts came from short midrange vs 28% of Dallas's; Dallas settled here more often (28% vs 3%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 3% of Indiana's attempts came from short midrange vs 28% of Dallas's; Dallas settled here more often (28% vs 3%).
Possession context
IND ran more early offense in this game.
Indiana Fever got 29% of FGA in transition (0.94 expected pts/att) vs 13% for Dallas Wings (0.95 expected pts/att).
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Dallas Wings won by 11.1 pts
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightOgunbowale created in difficult areas and delivered — 57% from S.Mid (4/7) well above the 38% baseline for that zone.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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