This game · 148 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots
Minnesota Lynx won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 22 points on 8-for-13 (62%), headlined by 5-for-9 from above the break — 7.4 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Minnesota Lynx created 3.9 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Minnesota Lynx outperformed expected value by 1.6 points on makes and misses.
- Q3 swung the look battle — Minnesota Lynx built a +6.0 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Minnesota Lynx (27% good looks) and Indiana Fever (34% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
carried the offense at the rim — 7/8 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 38% of Indiana's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 48% of Minnesota's; Minnesota tilted here more (48% vs 38%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 38% of Indiana's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 48% of Minnesota's; Minnesota tilted here more (48% vs 38%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Minnesota Lynx won by 16.7 pts
Indiana Fever won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightMcBride's strongest zone was Above — 56% from Above (5/9) vs. a 37% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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