TSRBeta
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · Final

This game · 136 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots

93—77
Washington Mystics
WAS
Mystics
IND
Fever
Indiana Fever

Washington Mystics won on finishing, not shot quality.

Kiki Iriafen

led the way with 21 points on 9-for-13 (69%), headlined by 6-for-8 at the rim — 4.7 more than expected overall with 62% of attempts from the rim or corner, with Georgia Amoore close behind (+4.4 on 11 points).

  1. Indiana Fever created 4.1 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Washington Mystics outperformed expected value by 14.0 points on makes and misses.
  3. The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Indiana Fever created a +3.5 expected-point edge in Q4.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
-4.1↓ Below avg
+4.1↓ Below avg
Shot making
+14.0↑ Above avg
-15.1↑ Above avg
Expected pts per shot
1.06
1.03

Shot diet

Washington Mystics got the cleaner diet — 52% rim or corner looks vs 42% for Indiana Fever.

Kiki Iriafen

carried the offense at the rim — 6/8 in the restricted area.

RimKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 45% of Washington's attempts came from the rim vs 35% of Indiana's, with Washington leaning on the higher-value zone (45% vs 35%).

WAS
45%18/29 · 62% FG
IND
35%16/25 · 64% FG
3/3 4/4
Paint
WAS
12%5/8 · 63% FG
IND
17%3/12 · 25% FG
3/4 1/2
Corner 3
WAS
8%3/5 · 60% FG
IND
7%1/5 · 20% FG
1/2 0/1
Short mid
WAS
6%3/4 · 75% FG
IND
1%0/1 · 0% FG
1/1 0/1
Long mid
WAS
9%2/6 · 33% FG
IND
7%1/5 · 20% FG
0/2 1/4
Above break
WAS
20%6/13 · 46% FG
IND
32%5/23 · 22% FG
3/4 3/10

Possession context

IND ran more early offense in this game.

Indiana Fever got 30% of FGA in transition (1.06 expected pts/att) vs 17% for Washington Mystics (0.95 expected pts/att).

WASIND
Transition share17%30%
Second-chance share14%14%
After-steal share9%4%
Half-court expected pts/att1.071.00
Transition expected pts/att0.951.06

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Washington Mystics won by 6.0 pts — SQ edge said IND.

Indiana Fever won 3 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.

Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.

WASINDEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots69.073.1IND
Finishing vs expected+14.0-15.1WAS

ESPN box score

Free throw pts1019IND
Turnovers1613IND
Offensive rebounds1011IND

Process value (pts)

Process total86.580.5WAS
↳ Looks + finishing83.058.0+25.0
↳ Free throws10.019.0-9.0
↳ Turnover cost-17.0-8.0-9.0
↳ Second chance10.511.5-1.0

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
6/20
FG%
30%
Pts
25
Vs expected
-4.6
C&S
0/3
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightClark struggled most from Paint — 0/3 against a 39% baseline.

Above-break three
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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28PHX89–80TOR· Jun 27LA87–111IND· Jun 27ATL90–105SEA· Jun 27WAS57–68CONN· Jun 26POR94–124CHI· Jun 26ATL75–78GSV· Jun 26LA97–125TOR· Jun 25DAL84–99LV· Jun 25NY88–99SEA· Jun 25PHX111–109IND· Jun 24MIN78–76WAS· Jun 24POR78–101CHI· Jun 24ATL66–77GSV· Jun 24NY87–76LV· Jun 23CHI63–92CONN· Jun 22TOR87–94ATL· Jun 22PHX77–86IND· Jun 22DAL112–110SEA· Jun 22GSV73–92LV· Jun 21WAS84–79MIN· Jun 21NY97–98LA· Jun 21IND96–113ATL· Jun 20SEA73–93PHX· Jun 20CHI92–93DAL· Jun 20TOR101–97CONN· Jun 19WAS86–83NY· Jun 19MIN81–75GSV· Jun 19ATL108–101IND· Jun 18WAS88–81CONN· Jun 17NY96–95CHI· Jun 17DAL80–91GSV· Jun 17MIN99–83LA· Jun 17LV86–76PHX· Jun 17SEA89–94POR· Jun 17TOR91–113IND· Jun 16LV66–96DAL· Jun 15POR74–107MIN· Jun 15LA58–78GSV· Jun 15WAS64–86NY· Jun 14ATL102–77TOR· Jun 14IND85–75CONN· Jun 13MIN97–100LV· Jun 13DAL83–84POR· Jun 13LA111–102PHX· Jun 13TOR85–86WAS· Jun 12GSV76–72SEA· Jun 12CHI106–114IND· Jun 11NY104–90ATL· Jun 11PHX70–85DAL· Jun 11LV105–89POR· Jun 11CONN102–106TOR· Jun 10LA88–83SEA· Jun 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